Graduate as an Eye-Cubed U Leader with a minor in Microeconomics

12 06 2013

Brian Beaulieu, Chief Economist for Vistage International spoke about the economy at the Vistage All City Event in New York.  His track record is stellar as he accurately predicted growth and contraction within our nation’s economy over the past decade and beyond.  He ended his presentation with a worthy pitch to the business owners in attendance.  He offered the service of analyzing any business from a microeconomic standpoint and providing insight into the current trends of an organization as well as his predictions for the future.

I thought about how Brian drew his conclusions, looked around the room and said to myself……. “I wonder if I can do that?”  It is critical to think about our businesses and determine the outlook.  We must know where we are going if nothing changes.  We need to ask ourselves if we have adequate plans in place to maximize our future results.

I have been working with metrics for most of my career and set out to change the culture of my company in 2010.   Having slugged through the major culture change (which is a post for another day), PFP emerged with a unique tool unmatched in our industry.  We have a tremendous amount of data and use it constantly to analyze our past performance and to understand our present performance…..now we need to do something new with it.

crystalball

Time for the economic analysis to predict our future performance…….

On the back of the door in my office is a chart.  It tracks monthly “twelve trailing month” data.  I now have 30 months of such data to scan and view.   By taking a page out of the Beaulieu economics 101 playbook, I have developed a rudimentary economic analysis of PFP’s sales performance resulting in a sales prediction into the future using nothing more than our current measurements. 

As of the writing of this post, I have shared my results with no one!  There are believers and detractors of any economic analysis.  And as far as taking the word of someone who has no track record, I offer this advice:

“You would be crazy to totally buy-into what I predict and stupid to completely reject it.”

I am going to write down my predictions, put them away and compare them to the actual sales results in the future.  However, just to provide a “hedge” with regard to my predictions,

Here are the factors that could render my prediction inaccurate:

  • If the variables become more volatile than the past 30 months would indicate.
  • If current management actions and initiatives designed to move specific variables have a rapid and profound impact on those variables.

Eye-Cubed leaders take the time to think, plan and predict.  They inspire, innovate and implement.  Regardless of the weather outside your window (today it is cloudy, rainy and foggy), if you analyze the data you already have in your possession, it is possible to see clearly into the future.

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